Listed equities
Listed equity markets rose by $19.2 trillion between the end of 2025 and early September, an increase of 14.0%. This took the total from $137.5 trillion to a record $156.7 trillion, almost double the 2022 level.
2026’s gains have been broad, but not uniform.
North America added the most value in absolute terms, rising 14.4% to $75.9 trillion, almost all of which was in the U.S. Broad-based U.S. earnings growth is a key driver - 86% of S&P 500 companies beat earnings expectations in the second quarter . Dramatic increases among some of the largest technology companies amplified the effect, but the strength in profits extends well beyond them. The listing of SpaceX has also been important, adding $1.8 trillion to U.S. market capitalisation.
The strongest percentage growth came in Asia-Pacific excluding Japan, up 25.7%. This reflects powerful rallies in technology-heavy South Korea and Taiwan, even after a sharp summer reversal in AI-related stocks. Japan also rose strongly, up 17.5%; healthy revenue growth and record profit margins are a key profit driver, helped by a weaker yen.
Europe and the UK recorded more modest increases of 7.9% and 9.8% respectively. Emerging Asia was the clear laggard at just 1.4% - India has been hit by foreign investor outflows, stretched valuations, weaker earnings momentum and a vulnerability to high oil prices, while lacking the AI-heavy market exposure that has lifted Korea and Taiwan.
Overall, the picture is one of substantial global equity appreciation rather than a U.S. only phenomenon.
Private equity
[Chart 9]
Public markets have experienced a powerful positive re-rating that private markets have not matched in 2026. Our modelling suggests that private equity AUM, measured as unrealised portfolio value and, excluding dry powder, reached $10.46tn in September 2026, an increase of 4.3% on 2025 . North America and Asia recorded the strongest growth, although the overall expansion remains significantly slower than in listed equity markets.
The relatively modest increase is consistent with both subdued portfolio returns so far this year and a more restrained pace of capital deployment. MSCI reported that most private-capital strategies produced returns up to 3% in the first quarter, while global buyout returned -1%, its first negative quarter since 2022. Venture capital was stronger, helped by rising valuations among AI and growth-stage technology companies.
MSCI notes that legacy software valuations have come under pressure in private equity, particularly for businesses acquired at high multiples during the low-rate growth cycle and now facing both higher financing costs and the threat of AI disruption.
The wider industry picture also points to a subdued market. Bain described the private-equity recovery as having stalled during the first half of 2026, with investment, exits and fundraising all losing momentum, while Preqin continues to forecast longer-term PE AUM growth but at a slower rate than previously expected.
Overall, our 4.3% estimate, referenced above, implies continued appreciation in private-equity portfolios as well as fund inflows, but without the much stronger re-rating seen across public markets.
Read about the private equity liquidity problem