Could tariffs drive high net worth and family office flight to safety?

Private client business could benefit from wider impact of tariffs 

The unfolding tariffs ‘trade war’ between the United States and several global partners could prompt high net worth individuals (HNWIs) and family offices to reassess their cross-border strategies and seek greater jurisdictional stability, according to Ocorian, the global provider of fund administration, capital markets, corporate, fiduciary, and regulatory services. The geopolitical uncertainty seems to be prompting UHNW/FO clients, who may have been sitting on proposals, to take action and move ahead with their estate planning or structuring needs.

Although it is still too early to predict the full impact with certainty, Ocorian observes that increased volatility in global trade dynamics – alongside rising concerns over valuation, inflation and deal-making conditions – may lead HNWIs and family offices to focus more actively on succession planning, second citizenships, and asset protection structures in perceived “safe haven” jurisdictions.

Robin Harris, Head of APAC at Ocorian, said: “Predictability, the rule of law and long-term certainty are central priorities for HNW individuals and family offices. The unpredictability of the current geopolitical landscape – particularly in relation to US tariffs – is creating a climate in which clients are more likely to take proactive steps to protect their wealth and plan for the long term.”

He added: “While it’s too soon to say definitively, we anticipate an uptick in private client activity as uncertainty increases. By contrast, corporate transactions may slow temporarily – not solely due to market fundamentals, but also because pricing risk has become significantly harder. Financiers are increasingly in ‘risk-off’ mode, with many lenders scaling back – or even halving – the leverage available to support transactions. That makes deal financing much more complex in today’s environment.”

Valuation concerns have already surfaced: A recent case saw fashion house Prada lower its offer for Versace by more than $200 million, citing market unpredictability. It highlights the growing challenge of determining asset value when future trade conditions are uncertain and rapidly shifting.

Ocorian emphasises that clients are not just seeking favourable tax treatment when choosing where to base their structures. Estate planning, succession planning, confidentiality and creditor protection – underpinned by legal and political stability – remain the primary drivers. This positions jurisdictions like the Channel Islands, Singapore, Hong Kong, Cayman Islands and British Virgin Islands favourably, as they are widely viewed as being stable/predictable jurisdictions and insulated to some degree from sudden shifts in US trade policy.

According to Ocorian’s research*, nearly four in five family offices had opened new physical presences in multiple jurisdictions in the last five years – a trend likely to accelerate if volatility continues. Many cited the global dispersion of family members and the need for diversified access to financial systems as key motivators.

The situation remains fluid, and experts caution against drawing definitive conclusions. As Harris notes: “There are no tested economic models for a trade standoff of this scale in the modern era. Theories exist, but we are in uncharted territory. What is clear is that uncertainty makes individuals and institutions more cautious – and that, in itself, can drive significant behavioural shifts.”

* In July 2024, Ocorian commissioned independent research company PureProfile to interview 309 family office investment managers working for family offices which use third-party private client services providers to support in the preservation and protection of their clients’ wealth. The investment managers interviewed are collectively responsible for assets under management of around $155 billion and include 201 working for multi-family offices. The global study interviewed family offices in Bahrain, Bermuda, Canada, France, Hong Kong, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, United Arab Emirates, the UK, US, Cayman Islands, Egypt, Ethiopia, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Kenya, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Tunisia, Jersey and Guernsey