Who Will Control the $24 Trillion Future of Private Markets?

By Vincent Calcagno, Head of U.S. Growth, Ocorian

By 2030, Ocorian forecasts that private market assets under management will reach nearly $24 trillion, almost doubling today’s levels. But as important as the growth trajectory is the question of control: who will own and influence the flow of this capital, and how will they shape the private equity market’s future?

The rise of the mega-managers

Our modelling shows that the industry’s largest players are consolidating power. Already, a handful of global managers capture the lion’s share of fundraising, reinforcing their ability to dictate pricing, structure, and investor terms. Competitive pressure in listed markets has pushed fees towards zero, while private markets continue to support resilient margins. The result: mega-managers are acquiring smaller rivals, diversifying product ranges, and leveraging global distribution networks to dominate inflows.

This concentration is reshaping the industry. For investors, allocating to multiple large-brand funds often means exposure to the same underlying transactions, creating a false sense of diversification. For managers, the pressure to bulk up is forcing strategic decisions about whether to compete head-on or carve out a specialist niche.

The mid-market squeeze

The picture for mid-sized managers is more complex. Our survey of U.S. and Canadian fund professionals* reveals that those finding capital raising harder in 2025 than in 2024 outnumber those finding it easier by three to two. Increased due diligence by LPs, more risk-averse investor behavior, and tighter allocation constraints are slowing commitments.

In this environment, placement agents and service providers have become critical lifelines. They provide access to institutional pools of capital and help managers design structures that meet the rising expectations of sophisticated LPs. But reliance comes at a cost: mid-market managers must demonstrate not just strong returns, but operational discipline and governance frameworks that can withstand scrutiny. Those unable to do so risk being left behind in an increasingly concentrated industry.

The retail frontier

At the same time, new distribution channels are rewriting the playbook. Registered Investment Advisers now influence more than $140 trillion in assets, much of which remains largely absent from private markets. Policy moves may also open the door for 401(k) retirement flows. Together, these trends represent a potential watershed in the private capital markets.

But they also raise the stakes. Retail access brings new layers of regulatory scrutiny, heightened compliance obligations, and a requirement for investor-ready infrastructure. The industry must reconcile innovation in distribution with rigorous governance, otherwise growth risks being undermined by misalignment between product design, investor expectations, and regulatory frameworks.

Aligning scale with specialization

Ocorian’s Global Asset Monitor highlights that growth is not uniform across asset classes. Infrastructure is attracting long-duration investors seeking resilience, real estate faces structural headwinds, and private credit – in its early middle innings – continues to expand into new frontiers. Across all asset classes, Asia is redrawing the map of investment flows, while the U.S. remains the epicentre of capital formation.

For managers, the lesson is clear: scale alone will not guarantee survival, and while those not scale will struggle to attract institutional dollars. Success lies in aligning scale with specialization, building depth in targeted strategies while partnering with providers who can deliver global infrastructure, regulatory sophistication, and investor trust.

Partnering for success

As the industry evolves, service providers are no longer seen as administrative vendors. They are strategic partners who can help managers navigate complexity with speed, clarity, and confidence. At Ocorian, we see our role as equipping managers with the infrastructure, governance, and adaptability needed to capture growth in a market defined by concentration and scrutiny.

Embracing partners that bring clarity, rigor, and adaptability across the capital lifecycle has become a defining competitive advantage. Whether structuring funds to attract retail flows, building investor-ready reporting systems, or navigating cross-border regulatory regimes, the right partnerships are critical to positioning for success.

A market built to endure

Some point to risks such as inflated private equity valuations or private credit’s rapid ascent as potential fault lines. But history suggests private markets are resilient. They weathered the global financial crisis and will adapt again. What matters is not just being in the market but also properly positioned: towards scale, trust, and specialist expertise.

By 2030, private markets will not only be larger, but more complex, more concentrated and even more competitive. The winners will be those who combine ambition with discipline and who can embrace strategic partnerships to seize the vast opportunities in a $24 trillion future.

Discover more with Ocorian

Private markets are evolving fast. Our Global Asset Monitor shows private asset funds are set to reach nearly $24 trillion by 2030. At Ocorian, we combine scale, expertise, and global reach to help asset managers and asset owners navigate complexity and seize opportunity.

Explore our latest research and see how Ocorian can be your strategic partner across the full lifecycle of capital.

*In May 2025 Ocorian commissioned independent research company PureProfile to interview 100 senior venture capital and mid-market private equity professionals in the US and Canada working for firms with $335.25 billion assets under management.

This article first appeared in FT FundFire.