North American investors expect continued U.S. growth in 2026 while preparing for market volatility

• Ocorian study finds investors balancing above-consensus growth expectations with heightened discipline around inflation, valuations and deployment

North American institutional investors and private market managers expect the U.S. economy to continue growing in 2026, but with markets entering a more fragile and selective phase, according to new independent research commissioned by Ocorian, a leading U.S. and global asset services provider.

The study, conducted among institutional investors, private market and hedge fund managers responsible for $16.8 trillion in assets under management, shows confidence in underlying economic momentum remains intact, even as respondents actively prepare for valuation resets, inflation persistence and shifting policy conditions.

Almost all respondents (98%) expect a correction in U.S. equity markets during 2026, reflecting widespread recognition that valuations remain elevated rather than a belief that a downturn is inevitable. Investors report adjusting strategy, exit planning and deployment pacing accordingly, with a stronger emphasis on operational value creation and downside resilience.

Inflation remains the dominant macro concern. All respondents expressed some level of concern, with 44% describing themselves as very concerned. While nearly half (48%) expect inflation to rise in 2026 and a further 15% believe it will remain flat, expectations of a rapid return to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target are limited. Only 18% anticipate that target being reached in 2026, with most pushing expectations into 2027 or later.

Despite these pressures, investors remain relatively optimistic about growth. Around half of respondents (49%) align with White House expectations of U.S. GDP growth of between 3% and 4% in early 2026, placing them well above prevailing consensus forecasts. This combination of growth confidence and heightened caution points to what the study describes as a period of “tempered optimism”.

Recession risk is viewed as elevated but not inevitable. Nearly six in ten respondents (57%) believe there is a 40% or greater probability of a U.S. recession in 2026, well above long-term baseline expectations. However, the findings suggest investors are treating recession as a live scenario to be planned for, rather than a base-case outcome, and are continuing to deploy capital selectively where risk-adjusted opportunities exist.

Monetary policy expectations also reflect this pragmatism. Almost all respondents (97%) expect more than one Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026, with more than half (53%) anticipating three or more cuts. At the same time, 92% believe the appointment of a new Federal Reserve Chair by the Trump Administration will increase political pressure on the central bank, reinforcing expectations that policy will skew toward supporting growth even if inflation remains above target.

The research highlights an important distinction in how different investor groups are approaching 2026. Fund managers tend to focus on execution, deployment and exit opportunities as pressure builds to put capital to work, while asset owners place greater emphasis on governance, liquidity management and downside protection. This divergence is shaping behaviour across private equity, private credit and other private market strategies, without undermining overall commitment to the asset class.

Unemployment is expected to edge higher, with nearly two-thirds of respondents (63%) forecasting a 2026 unemployment rate above current consensus estimates. However, most investors see labour market softening as part of a broader rebalancing rather than a trigger for economic contraction.

Vincent Calcagno, Head of U.S. Growth at Ocorian, said: “Investors are not pulling back, but they are becoming more disciplined. The expectation of continued growth sits alongside a clear-eyed assessment of risk, valuations and policy uncertainty. This is a market that is adapting, not retreating.

“What stands out is that capital remains committed to private markets, deal activity and exits are expected to improve, and investors are actively preparing for volatility rather than being paralysed by it. The outlook for 2026 is neither bullish nor bearish – it is conditional, selective and ultimately constructive.

* Ocorian commissioned independent research company PureProfile in December 2025 to interview 248 private markets fund managers, hedge fund managers, pension funds, wealth managers, insurance asset managers and family offices in the U.S. and Canada working for firms with $17.772 trillion assets under management

About Ocorian 

Ocorian is a global leader in fund services, corporate and trust services, capital markets, and regulatory and compliance support.

Unlocking new value for its clients across jurisdictions and service lines is Ocorian’s priority; it manages over 20,000 structures on behalf of 9,000+ clients including financial institutions, large-scale international organisations, and high-net-worth individuals.

Ocorian provides fully compliant, tailored solutions that are individual to clients’ needs, no matter where in the world they hold financial interests, or however they are structured.

The group offers a full suite of corporate, fund and private client services across a network of offices spanning all the world’s financial hubs. Locations include Bermuda, BVI, Cayman, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Guernsey, Hong Kong, Ireland, Isle of Man, Jersey, Luxembourg, Mauritius, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Sweden, UAE, the UK, and the U.S.

To find out more about Ocorian and its services, including regulatory information, visit www.ocorian.com/