How 200 senior decision-makers are reading risk, opportunity and the rise of private credit in European infrastructure debt.
European infrastructure lending is at an unusual point in 2026. Private credit is now mainstream in the sector, attracting large pools of institutional capital, but scrutiny is rising in equal measure: is the wider market too crowded, is underwriting discipline slipping, and can today's structures withstand a more volatile world?
We surveyed 200 senior decision-makers across Europe's core infrastructure debt markets to see how the people doing the deals are answering those questions. The findings characterise a market growing with discipline rather than exuberance. Demand is intact, private credit is gaining relevance, but returns are increasingly hard-won.
Download the full report here (free PDF)
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Eight key findings
Each finding gives the headline result and key supporting numbers. The fuller picture - sector and regional detail, cross-segment variation and charts - can be found in the report.
83% of respondents describe European infrastructure lending as a market in moderate growth with stable demand. Only 7% see strong growth and high demand. Looking forward, 68% expect infrastructure investing to increase moderately. Just one in 20 expects significant expansion.
81% expect private credit to increase its share of infrastructure lending moderately over the next three to five years; another 2% expect a significant increase. 71% believe private credit will slightly increase its share relative to traditional bank financing. The survey suggests a gradual rebalancing rather than a sudden displacement of banks.
The strongest drivers cited are stronger competition leading to more attractive borrower terms (76%) and higher risk appetite and faster decision-making (76%). 60% point to banks' preference for lower-risk, lower-yield assets, and 42% to tighter bank regulation. Private credit is winning on certainty, structuring flexibility and speed, not just on leverage.
Military and defence ranks highest for future opportunity (58%), followed by energy transmission (57%), renewables (47%), data centres (42%) and energy storage (37%). The same survey flags 50% of respondents seeing defence and renewables as among the most overcapitalised sectors. Demand and crowding are co-locating, making underwriting discipline more important.
DACH leads activity (74% current, 79% expected future growth), followed by UK & Ireland (71% current), Southern Europe (54%) and the Nordics (47% future). Eastern Europe remains marginal: only 24% expect strong future growth there.
The biggest immediate challenge cited is inflation and higher interest rates raising hurdle rates (31%), followed by spread compression (25%). Lenders are squeezed from both directions at once.
Regulatory and political risk and market risk (borrower demand, pricing volatility) now rank as the top concerns, with geopolitical risk close behind. Concern over financial structures was minimal. Lenders are increasingly focused on forces they cannot control.
61% describe current covenant strength as balanced; a further 25% call the market strong or lender-protective. Only 4% describe terms as covenant-lite. 61% say covenants have strengthened over the last two years, against 19% who say they have weakened.
Get the full analysis and charts - download the report
Viewpoint: regulation and private credit
By Cato Holmsen, Global Head of Capital Markets, Ocorian
“Private credit has reached a point where regulators can no longer ignore it, but they have not yet decided what problem they are trying to solve."
Cato's Viewpoint examines the scale of non-bank finance, the visibility problem regulators face, and the route intervention is likely to take - starting with reporting, then targeted measures around pension exposure, concentration and oversight of valuations. The piece argues that transparency will come before constraint, and that independent oversight is a market response that can get ahead of the regulatory curve.
Read the full Viewpoint in the report
Methodology
The survey was conducted between 18 and 25 March 2026, after hostilities in the Gulf had begun and as bond markets were repricing for higher inflation, lower growth and greater sovereign risk. The findings therefore reflect thinking against the current geopolitical backdrop, not a pre-shock baseline.
- 200 active decision-makers in Europe's core infrastructure debt markets.
- 75% investment side (infrastructure funds, private credit funds, infrastructure-lending investment banks); 25% borrowers (digital, social, transport, utilities).
- Seniority: 40% heads of project finance or structured finance, 32% CFOs or finance directors, 29% COOs.
- Geography: Germany 33%, France 21%, Switzerland 15%, Italy 15%, UK 10%.
About Ocorian
Ocorian, including Nordic Trustee, provides independent trustee, agency and SPV services across European infrastructure financing, separating administrative and monitoring functions from the lenders who originate, structure and distribute the debt. We act as facility agent, security trustee, paying agent, escrow agent, noteholder representative and project accounts agent across more than 3,000 European trustee and loan agency mandates.
European infrastructure debt in 2026: market growth, the share private credit is taking from banks, sector demand and crowding, regional activity, return pressure, covenant strength, deal sizes and tenors, structural innovation, and a Viewpoint from Ocorian's Cato Holmsen on the regulatory direction of travel.
200 senior decision-makers in European infrastructure debt: heads of project finance, structured finance, CFOs, finance directors and COOs, three-quarters on the investment side and a quarter on the borrower side. The sample is concentrated in Germany, France, Switzerland, Italy and the UK.
Between 18 and 25 March 2026, after hostilities in the Gulf had begun and as bond markets were repricing. The findings reflect thinking against that geopolitical backdrop.
As an independent third party, Ocorian acts as facility agent, security trustee, paying agent, escrow agent, noteholder representative and project accounts agent on infrastructure financings, separating administrative and monitoring functions from the lenders who originate and structure the debt.
Download the Infrastructure Lending Survey Report 2026
The full set of findings, a Viewpoint from Cato Holmsen, and full sector and regional data. Free PDF.
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