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Capital markets investors predict more airline bailouts and insolvencies

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Capital markets investors predict more airline bailouts and insolvencies

  • New study finds that 81% of capital markets investors expect to see more regional carriers receiving government bailouts
  • 57% predict the sector will be targeted by private equity as a recovery play

An overwhelming majority (81%) of capital markets investors expect to see more government support to ensure the survival of regional airlines as carriers struggle to survive the prolonged collapse in demand for air travel resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic.

Our global capital markets report, titled Navigating CovExit: searching for value in the debt markets, found that three quarters (74%) of respondents believe governments will continue to ride to the rescue of national carriers despite the controversy surrounding state bailouts. 

Even with government support on hand, two-thirds (66%) of capital markets investors expect to see more airlines enter liquidation over the coming 12 months but over half of (56%) are anticipating an uptick in M&A activity with private capital funds and cash-rich, state-sponsored carriers as potential buyers. 

According to our study, as demand for aircraft rebounds, private equity funds are likely to extend their presence in the aviation sector’s distressed debt market and deploy capital at the right time in the cycle. The majority (57%) of respondents believe that private equity will target the airline sector as a corporate recovery play over the next 12 months.

The report suggests that renewed private equity interest is likely to be stimulated by the growing focus on carbon emissions, with 23% of investors believing that airlines and travel businesses are well-placed to capitalise on the “green revolution” expected in 2021 and beyond. With the airline industry targeting net zero emissions by 2050, many airlines have already announced their commitments to achieving this aim and more are set to follow. With aviation accounting for around 2% of total global greenhouse gas emissions, should the sector achieve its goal it could have significant environmental and financial benefits.

The research also examines the feasibility of airlines raising finance through their securitising alternative assets such as aircraft, engines, hangars as well as intangible assets such as landing slots and brand IP rights. Respondents believe that it will be easiest for regional carriers (61%), charter airlines (60%) and international airport hubs (57%) to secure further financing against such alternative assets. Conversely, they believe that it will be hardest for local airports (32%), airline catering (31%) and low-cost airlines (29%) to do the same.

Alan Booth, Global Head of Capital Markets said: “Airlines are increasing their flight schedules, but conditions will remain volatile as long as governments continue to alter travel restrictions. Government bailouts and credit lines have kept airline insolvencies at bay but the rise in legal challenges may create more opportunities for private capital funds through distressed debt and M&A. While airlines will face more short-term turbulence, the stronger carriers will make a robust post-pandemic recovery, which could gather more momentum if they can demonstrate compliance with carbon emission targets.

“With fossil fuels representing around 30% of airlines’ total cost base, as well as being notoriously volatile in terms of cost, many investors will see the airline industry’s goal to achieve net zero carbon emissions as a potentially lucrative avenue should they harness the right technological developments at the right time.

"These developments are likely to stimulate further securitisation, restructuring and insolvency activity. In these scenarios, leveraging a team experienced in delivering corporate trust and agency services to support the debt financing associated with the purchase/sale or lease of aircraft is key.

Download the full report Navigating CovExit: searching for value in the debt markets.

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